“If our species is to stagger through another millennium, we need to get better at thinking about how we think—and conducting high-stakes debates more intelligently. This book lays out, with superb clarity, the path forward.” PHILIP E. TETLOCK , author of Superforecasting “Third Millennium Thinking offers a road map for making more effective decisions in an increasingly complex and noisy world. If you could only read one book about how to think more clearly, make it this one.” ANNIE DUKE , author of Thinking in Bets, and World Series of Poker champion ? ! “A physicist, a philosopher, and a psychologist walk into a book, and mix an inviting cocktail about how to think through big problems and make effective decisions in a Third Millennium age of overwhelming, complex, and contradictory information. A must-read for anyone who needs to make expert judgments without being experts themselves.” DAVID DUNNING , professor of psychology at the University of Michigan and discoverer of the Dunning-Kruger Effect “A Nobel laureate physicist, an influential philosopher, and an expert on legal psychology reveal how you can use the tools of science in everyday life. In a world filled with uncertainty and fractured by polarization, this guide to clear thinking couldn’t come at a better time.” ADAM GRANT , author of Think Again, Hidden Potential, and Outliers How do we judge what is true? How can we think better? Today we’re being challenged by urgent life-and-death issues such as global warming, pandemics, and AI, face recognition, and other revolutionary technologies. These involve highly technical questions and were asked to find the answers by digesting a torrent of information, some of it contradictory. In this marvelous book three world experts from physics, philosophy, and psychology team up to help us survive that whirlwind, presenting the recipe for thinking that is demanded by the challenges of this new millennium." LEONARD MLODINOW, author of Subliminal, Feynman's Rainbow, and co-author with Stephan Hawking of A Briefer History of Time “How do we make good decisions? “ A wonderful book for anyone interested in how best to navigate our complex world of information overload. Engagingly and informatively, it emphasizes how processes used in the practice of science can provide widely applicable tools for approaching individual and collective decision-making. A truly valuable resource for taking on the challenges facing our species and the planet.” ELIZABETH BLACKBURN , PhD, Nobel Prize winner and coauthor of The Telomere Effec t “A model of clear thinking and a terrific discussion of how to use logic and evidence to solve the hardest problems. This might just be the cure for what ails us.” CASS R. SUNSTEIN , Robert Walmsley University Professor, Harvard University, and author of Decisions about Decisions, and co-author with Richard H. Thaler of Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness a philosopher, walk into a book... ... and  present the tools      andframeworks have          developed         to keep      from        fooling themselves,       to           understand the      world,         and to        make       decisions. thatscientists ? ! Barnes & Noble Bookshop Large Order Discounts iBooks LibroFM Amazon F i n d i n g S i g n a l i n N o i s e C h a p t e r 6 S c i e n t i f i c O p t i m i s m C h a p t e r 1 0 S c i e n c e G o n e W r o n g C h a p t e r 1 3 S y s t e m a t i c a l a n d S y s t e m a t i c U n c e r t a i n t y C h a p t e r 9 " P i c k Y o u r P o i s o n " : T w o K i n d s o f E r r o r C h a p t e r 8 S e e i n g S i g n a l i n R a n d o m N o i s e C h a p t e r 7 A R a d i c a l S h i f t t o P r o b a b i l i s t i c T h i n k i n g C h a p t e r 4 T h e D e l i b e r a t i v e C h a l l e n g e C h a p t e r 1 7 W e a v i n g F a c t s a n d V a l u e s C h a p t e r 1 6 T h e W i s d o m a n d t h e M a d n e s s o f C r o w d s C h a p t e r 1 5 W h y I t ' s H a r d t o L e a r n f r o m E x p e r i e n c e C h a p t e r 1 2 O r d e r s o f U n d e r s t a n d i n g a n d F e r m i P r o b l e m s C h a p t e r 1 1 O v e r c o n f i d e n c e a n d H u m i l i t y C h a p t e r 5 M a k i n g T h i n g s H a p p e n C h a p t e r 3 I n s t r u m e n t s a n d R e a l i t y C h a p t e r 2 C o n f i r m a t i o n B i a s a n d B l i n d A n a l y s i s C h a p t e r 1 4 D e c i s i o n s , D e c i s i o n s , D e c i s i o n s C h a p t e r 1 ROBERT MacCOUN is a social psychologist, a professor of law at Stanford University, and a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute. He received the 2019 James McKeen Cattell Award for lifetime achievement from the Association for Psychological Science SAUL PERLMUTTER is a 2011 Nobel Laureate, sharing the prize in physics for the discovery of the accelerating expansion of the universe. He is a professor of physics at the University of California, Berkeley, and a senior scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. IMAGE CREDITS: AUTHOR PHOTOGRAPHS: JON SCHAINKER (SAUL PERLMUTTER); RORY CAMPBELL (JOHN CAMPBELL); AUDREY Mac COUN (ROBERT MacCOUN); JACKET DESIGN BY KEITH HAYES; JACKET ART © SHUTTERSTOCK IMAGES; BLANK WHITE BOOK COVER: IMAGE BY VECTONAUTA ON FREEPIK; DICE IMAGE, ICON DESIGN, AND WEBSITE BY NOA PERLMUTTER and a psychologist Based on a wildly popular UC Berkeley course, a primer on how to think critically, make sound decisions, and solve problems—individually and collectively—using scientists’ tricks of the trade. In our deluge of information, it's getting harder and harder to distinguish the revelatory from the contradictory. How do we make health decisions in the face of conflicting medical advice? Does that article on GMOs even show what the authors claim? How can we navigate the next Thanksgiving discussion with our in-laws, who follow completely different experts on climate? In Third Millennium Thinking, a physicist, a psychologist, and a philosopher introduce readers to the tools and frameworks that scientists have developed to keep from fooling themselves, to understand the world, and to make decisions. We can all borrow these trust-building techniques to tackle problems both big and small. Readers will learn: How to achieve a ground-level understanding of the facts of the modern world How to chart a course through a profusion of possibilities How to work together to take on the challenges we face today And much more Using provocative thought exercises, jargon-free language, and vivid illustrations drawn from history, daily life, and scientists’ insider stories, Third Millennium Thinking offers a novel approach for readers to make sense of the nonsense. Related Educational Links THIRD MILLENNIUM THINKING A physicist, Un i ver s ity Cour s e: Sen s e and Sen s ibility and Scienc e https://sensibility.berkeley.edu High School Course on Nobel Prize Website: Scientific Thinking for All: A Toolkit https://www.nobelprize.org/scientific- thinking-for-all/ JOHN CAMPBELL is a professor of philosophy at the University of California, Berkeley. He has held Guggenheim and NEH Fellowships and served as President of the European Society for Philosophy and Psychology.